雷电灾害影响因子的统计和计量分析

Statistical and Econometric Analysis on Factors of Lightning Disasters in China

雷电灾害损失控制在近几年取得了一些成效,但是要进一步提高雷电灾害防御的效率,还需要从雷电灾害影响因子入手。本文基于2010年的雷电灾害自然强度和频率、地区人均生产总值和地区人口水平为自变量,以雷电伤亡人数为因变量,对面板数据进行了描述统计的定性分析和建立计量模型和聚类分析为主的定量分析。分析结果表明,地区经济发展水平的提高虽然增加了地区灾害的易损性和提高灾害防御能力,但净效应是降低了灾害人口损失,而且是影响雷电灾害的主要影响因子,其次是地区人口;雷灾影响因子在不同地区的影响程度不同,分成三类的聚类分析结果,可为制定针对地区的雷电灾害防御措施提供一定的政策依据。

Progress in reducing lightning disaster loss has been made in the past few years, but controlling factors of lightning disasters is the key to improve its efficiency. With the panel data of 31 provinces of China in the year 2010, intensity and frequency of lighting, provincial GDP per capita and population as independent variables and population loss for lightning disasters as dependent variable, statistical and econometric tools such as modeling and cluster ana;ysis have been utilized to demonstrate influences of those variables on lightning disaster control and prevention and relationships among them. The conclusions are those that [1] enhancing economic development could raise vulnerability of local disasters and also capacity of disaster prevention l but the net effect of them is reducing Ioss [2] economic prosperity is #llustrated to be the essential factor rather than local popuSation and intensity and frequency of lightning disasters, and the modeling results also demonstrated that the nature of lightning disasters exerts the least effect on prevention; [3] 31 provinces could be classified into three clusters according the SPSS＇ s ciuster analysis with those variables above, which could be useful for policy recommendations for improving lightning prevention and control.