城市道路高峰时段小汽车平均载人数/车次的实证研究

Study of Evidence of Average Number of Person/Car during Urban Road Rush Hours

该文以成都市为例,选取分布较均匀的23个地点或线路,全年在高峰时段共试测849393车次,应用大数定律估算出678个均值样本值,在中心极限定理指导下,用x2检验法对其算术平均值作了分布拟合检验,从实证角度验证了统计量的分布,估算出实际真值的置信区间和置信度,最终确定出年度小汽车平均载人数/车次。

Taking Chengdu City as example, the law of great numbers was used to estimate 678 average sample values by selecting average-distributed 23 places or route and checking 849393 cars at rush hours. Under leading of the central limit theorem, the fitting of distribution was checked up by x2 test method with the arithmetic mean value. Practical evidence proved the statistic distribution and true confidence intervals and credibility were estimated to determine annual average person/car.