高频汇率视角下东亚创建人民币货币区的潜质分析

An Analysis of the Potentiality of Establishing RMB Currency Area in East Asia from the Viewpoint of High-frequency Exchange Rate

美国金融危机后,人民币现金和金融资产在东亚周边国家和地区备受重视,建立东亚人民币货币区的呼声也愈发强烈。本文通过采用东亚经济体高频汇率数据,首先揭示人民币汇率变动与东亚其它国家(地区)货币汇率长期协整规律,其次分析人民币汇率短期变动的短期影响,进而计算东亚货币汇率中人民币的比重,动态对比人民币在东亚区域的地位变化,最终证明了东亚创建人民币货币区具有一定的可行性潜质。

After the U.S.financial crisis,the RMB yuan in cash and financial assets has attracted increasing attention in the neighboring countries and regions of East Asia.More and more voices are heard to build an RMB currency area in East Asia.Via the data of the high-frequency exchange rate data of the East Asian economies,the thesis first reveals a long-term integration between the RMB exchange rate changes and that of other East Asian countries(regions).On the basis of the short-term impacts of the RMB exchange rate changes,it calculates the proportion of RMB in the determination of the East Asian currency exchange rates.Making a dynamic comparison of RMB's importance in East Asia,it verifies the feasibility of RMB Currency Region of East Asia.