我国股市对居民银行储蓄的分流效应:1992-2009

The Diversion Effect of China's Stock Market on the Residents' Bank Savings: 1992-2009

本文构建了居民银行储蓄模型,并以向量误差修正模型全面检验了1992-2009年股市对居民储蓄资金分流效应的动态变化趋势。分时段检验发现,我国股市对居民银行储蓄的分流作用在1997年以后的时段内变得更加明显。长期协整关系却表明,与国内产出、通货膨胀率和利率等经济基本面因素相比,股票价格和成交额对居民储蓄的影响偏弱,这可能是我国股市的高波动性所致。

Building a model of the bank savings of the residents,the thesis testifies the dynamic tendency of diversion effect of the stock market upon the bank savings of the residents from 1992 to 2009 via a vector error correction model.Tests of different periods find that the diversion effect has become more apparent since 1997.However,the long-term co-integration indicates that the stock price and trading volume exert fewer impacts upon the residents' savings than the domestic output,inflation rate,interest rate and other economic fundamentals do,which may be caused by the high volatility of China's stock market.