长期利率对货币政策的挑战:一个述评

The Challenge of Long-term Interest Rates on the Monetary Policy: A Commentary

由于长期利率对居民和企业投资消费行为、资源配置发挥重要作用,因此,央行必须确保短期基准利率能够有效影响长期利率,才能实现货币政策最终目标。目前多数研究认为,短期利率和长期利率之间并不存在稳定的关系,影响长期利率变动的因素较为复杂,危机前一段时间,曾出现长期利率之谜现象。作者从风险溢价的角度对此进行了解释,并认为这是危机前全球流动性泛滥导致货币政策失灵的一个表现。作者在分析发达国家经济实践的基础上,提出了未来我国货币政策向价格型调控转变过程中需要处理好的几个问题。

Since the long-term interest rates play an important role in the consumer behaviors and the resources allocation of residents and enterprises,central banks should ensure that the short-term benchmark interest rate has a long-term and effective impact on the long-term interest rates to achieve the ultimate goals of monetary policies.Currently,most studies suggest that there is no stable relationship between the short-term and the long-term interest rates.Factors affecting the change of the long-term interest rates are so complicated that there has been a myth of the long-term interest rates in the pre-crisis period.From the perspective of risk premium,the thesis holds that it is resulted from the mal-function of the monetary policies caused by the global overwhelming liquidity before the crisis.On the analysis of the practice of the developed economies,the thesis points out a few problems that need to be addressed during the transformation of China's monetary policy to price-type regulation.