区域系统性金融风险的识别与防范——以泰州为例

Identification and Precaution of the Regional Systemic Financial Risks—Taking Taizhou as an Example

本文根据国内外关于金融危机研究的文献及实证研究结果,分别从宏观经济金融、地区经济和地区金融三个方面构建金融风险预警模型,考察地区金融风险状态。并利用MS-VAR模型构建风险预警子系统,对1998年至2010年金融风险的历史信息进行刻画。最后,将宏观经济金融、地区经济和地区金融预警子系统的预警指标,通过因子分析方法筛选出能够反映地区金融风险状态的关键指标,从而为基层央行开展金融风险防范与管理工作提供理论支撑。

Based on the literatures as well as the empirical research both home and abroad about financial crisis,the article constructs an early-warning model of financial crisis in terms of the macro economy and finance,the regional economy and the regional finance so as to examine the risk status of the regional finance.By means of the MS-VAR model to build a sub-system of the risk early warning,it elaborates on the historical information of the financial risks from 1998 to 2010.Then it screens out the critical indicators among the sub-system of the macro economy and finance,the regional economy and the regional finance via factor analysis to reflect the risk status of the regional finance and therefore provides the theoretical support to the precaution and management of financial risks for the local central banks.