基于马尔可夫模型的交通枢纽客流集散方式研究

Study on Passenger Flow Centralization and Distribution Mode in Traffic Hub based on Markov Model

运用马尔可夫决策理论的系统状态转移矩阵决策法,分析交通枢纽客流集散方式中出租车、公交车、地铁、私家车及其他5种交通方式的客流变化趋势和规律,通过建立交通枢纽客流集散方式分担率预测模型,采用马尔可夫分析法对未来的客流变化进行预测。以某交通枢纽为例进行实证研究,预测未来年度交通枢纽各种集散方式的分担率,并根据预测结果进行分析,提出有关协调优化对策。

By using the system transfer matrix decision-making method in Markov decision- making theory, this paper analyzes the passenger flow change trend and principle of taxi, bus, metro, automobile and other traffic modes in passenger flow centralization and distribution mode of traffic hub. Through establishing the share rate forecast model of the mode, the passenger flow change in future could be forecast by using Markov analysis method. Taking the traffic hub as demonstration example, this paper forecasts the share rate of each centralization and distribution mode of traffic hub in future year and analyzes its forecast result, then puts forward relative coordination and optimization countermeasures.