辽宁省税务收入与经济增长分析

An Analysis of Tax Revenue Income and Economic Growth in Liaoning Province

本文采用1985-2011年的样本数据,通过建立多变量自回归模型和误差修正模型,对辽宁省税务收入与经济增长之间的动态相关性进行实证研究,并在此基础上预测分析了未来税务收入的增长趋势。研究结果表明:从长期来看,经济增长对税务收入的贡献率为0.755;从短期来看,税务收入与经济产出之间的波动响应系数分别是0.539,在未来一段时间内税务收入会保持不低于17.2%的增长速度。由于辽宁省税收弹性偏低,要通过优化产业结构、转变增长方式和提高税收征管水平等措施,保证税务收入与经济能够长期稳定协调发展。

The paper analyzes the dynamic correlation relationship between tax revenue and economic growth based on VAR model and ECM model from 1985 to 2011 in Liaoning province, and on the basis, forecasting analyzes the growth trend of tax revenue in the future. The results show that： in the long run, the coefficient of elasticity which tax revenue on the economy is O. 755 ; in the short term, the volatility response coefficients which tax revenue on economic output are 0. 539, the tax revenue will maintain the growth rate of not less than 17.2% in the coming period of time. But its tax elasticity is lower, so it can through optimizing the industrial structure, changing the growth mode, improving tax collection and other measures to ensure that tax revenue and economy can have a long - term stable coordinated development.