基于改进ADC模型的反导导弹战斗部作战效能评估

Evaluating Operational Effectiveness of Missile Defense Warhead Based on the Modified ADC Model

传统ADC(Availability Dependability Capacity,ADC)模型计算过程较为繁琐,同时评估的只是系统本身的基本效能,反映不出武器在实际战场环境中的作战效能。为了有效评估武器装备的系统效能,以传统ADC模型为基础,通过借鉴马尔科夫过程的思想,提出了一种简化算法,同时构造了一种改进的ADC模型,综合考虑了影响反导导弹战斗部作战效能的因素,将定性问题定量化,并通过实例验证了该模型的有效性;特别提出了将目标导弹的突防能力作为影响因素来分析,对装备的型号论证、方案研制具有一定的参考价值。

In order to evaluate the weapon system effectiveness, American Weapon System Effectiveness Industry Advisory Committee advanced the ADC model. The model enhances the system integrity of weap- ons＂ structure, technical feature and tactical function. The defect of the traditional ADC model lies in the complex calculation procedure. Also, the evaluation is only confined to the basic effectiveness. The effec- tiveness of weapon system based on the conflict circumstance in reality can＇t be evaluated. This paper, based on the traditional ADC model, puts forward a simplified algorithm by referencing the thought of Markov process and establishes an improved ADC model by which the conflict circumstance is overall con- sidered in reality to make the qualitative problem quantized. A real case is analyzed to confirm the effec- tiveness and scientificness of the new model. The paper shows particular concerns about the target missiles defense penetration ability, which is of some reference value to the weapons＂ conceptualization, initiation and design.