基于GIS的中国粮食生产时空变化研究

Spatial-temporal Change of Grain Production in China Based on GIS

采用定量、定性分析相结合的方法,以GIS技术和空间统计分析方法为主,分析和研究我国粮食生产的时空分布变化,探讨我国粮食生产分布中存在的问题。从研究结果来看,在不同时期,八大产粮区的粮食产量有减有增,但粮食产量的总体趋势是增加的;从省域尺度来看,东北地区粮食比重下降明显,西部略有上升,中部地区比重提高较快;最后,应用回归模型对可以量化的影响粮食生产时空变化的因素进行回归分析,得出粮食作物播种面积是最主要的影响因素。

The quantitative and qualitative analysis was adopted by using tile GIS technology and spatial statistical analysis method to analyze the spatial-temporal changt, of grain production in China. The problem that exists in grain production was discussed. Resuhs showed that in differ- ent period, the grain production of eight major grain-producing areas either increased or de- creased, but the overall trend was to increase; as far as provincial change was concerned, grain proportion of northeast dropped significantly, the West rose slightly and the central provinces rose quickly. And the regression model was used to quantify the effect of temporal-spatial change factors on grain production, and it was concluded that the grain planting areas were the main in- fluential factors.