中国碳排放、能源消费与经济增长协整关系实证研究

Co-integration Relationship Empirical Research of Chinese Carbon Emissions,Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

通过对1952-2008年的时间序列数据进行分析,运用边限检验-VEC误差修正模型各个变量之间的长期协整关系,试对中国碳排放、经济增长、能源消费、能源结构、就业之间的动态因果关系进行实证研究。边限检验结果显示,这些变量间存在着三种长期协整关系:向量误差修正模型证实能源消费是碳排放的格兰杰原因,就业人数是经济增长的格兰杰原因,能源消费是中国碳排放的主要原因,而经济增长与碳排放没有因果关系,能源结构的调整对中国减少碳排放具有重要作用。

It attempts empirically to research the dynamic causality among Chinese carbon emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, energy structure and employment. By analyzing the time series data from 1952 to 2008,it use edge inspection-VEC error correction model test a co-integration relationship among the variables. Test results show that there are three co-integration relationship among these variables. Vector error correction model confirmes that energy consumption is the granger reason for carbon emissions, employment is the granger reason for economic growth, energy consumption is the main reason for Chinese carbon emissions, but there is no causality between economic growth and carbon emissions, the energy structure adjustment of China has an important role for reducing carbon emissions.