低碳物流发展的系统动力学分析

System Dynamics Analysis on the Development of the Low-Carbon Logistics

在分析低碳物流系统结构特征和动态反馈的基础上,运用系统动力学的基本理论和方法,构建了低碳物流系统动力学模型。系统模型仿真结果表明:产业结构调整、技术改进、政策制度建设都对降低物流碳排放有显著影响,特别是政策制度措施效果最明显。因此,发展新能源技术、减少车辆碳排放、使用低碳运输模式,采取低碳物流制度建设、提高企业和公众低碳意识是低碳物流发展重点。

A low-carbon logistics system dynamics model,by using system dynamics theory and method,has been built based on analysis of low-carbon logistics system structural characteristics and dynamic feedback.The system model simulation results show that the adjustment of industrial structure and technological improvements,especially the establishment of policy to reduce logistics carbon emissions have significant effect. Therefore,it is important to the development of new energy technologies,reduce vehicle carbon emissions,low carbon transport mode,taking low-carbon logistics system construction, enhances the enterprise and the public awareness of low-carbon logistics.