聚合物驱产油量预测模型的比较研究

Comparison of Production Prediction Models of Polymer Flooding Oil

聚合物驱产油量预测结果的可靠性直接关系到油田开发年度规划和中长期规划的编制部署,因此预测模型的选择尤为重要。介绍了聚合物驱产油量预测的5种模型:广义翁氏模型、Weibull模型、瑞利模型、Logistic模型和HCZ模型。应用这5种模型分别对克拉玛依油田七东区三采克下组聚驱产油量进行了预测,对比分析表明Weibull模型和Logistic模型对实际产油量拟合程度较其他3种模型高,预测结果误差均在10%以内;各个模型考虑的因素不尽相同,在进行实际应用前应对这些模型择优利用。

Results of polymer flooding oil production forecast directly affect annual planning and long-term planning deployment in oilfield development! so the choice of forecasting model is particularly important.Five kinds of production prediction models of polymer-flooding are described in this article,such as generalized Weng forecasting methods.Weibull Model.Rayleigh Model.Logistic Model and HCZ Model.The five models are applied to predict polymer flooding oil production in Qidong Area of Kexia Formation of Karamay Oilfield, and comparison of models indicates that Weibull model and Logistic model match well with the observed oil production rate than other models;and the errors of these two models are both lower than 10%.Because of various factors are considered in different models,the forecast model should be preferred before practical application.