应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测猪场中猪戊型肝炎的流行趋势

Forecasting the prevalence of swine hepatitis E in pig farms by a grey system GM(1,1) model

为研究猪戊型肝炎的流行趋势及其预测,应用灰色系统理论对上海市2005-2010年的猪戊型肝炎资料进行分析,建立了灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,并进行了模型评价。结果表明:GM(1,1)模型精度检验结果为优,能精确地模拟猪戊型肝炎的流行趋势。应用该模型预测上海市2011年、2012年猪戊型肝炎的感染率分别为19.25%和18.34%。

In order to predict the prevalence of swine hepatitis E, the data of swine hepatitis E in Shanghai area between 2005 and 2010 were analyzed by using the grey system theory,and a grey sys- tem GM（1,1）model was established and evaluated. The results showed that the established GM（1,1） model had very good precision and could accurately simulate the prevalence of swine hepatitis E. The infection rates of swine hepatitis E in Shanghai in 2011 and 2012 forecasted by this model were 19.25% and 18.34% ,respectively.