摘要
根据1980-2009年联合国粮农组织的统计数据,分析了国际大豆价格的波动趋势,并构建协整模型对国际大豆价格波动的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:世界大豆出口量每增加1个百分点,国际大豆价格则下降2.17个百分点;世界人均实际GDP每增加1个百分点,国际大豆价格则上升4.71个百分点。
The paper analyzed the trend of international soybean price fluctuation according to the FAO＇s statistical data between 1980- 2009, and made an empirical analysis of factors influencing international soybean price fluctuation by building a cointegration model. The result showed that the international soybean price would decrease by 2.17 percentage points if the soybean export amount in- creased by one percentage point in the world; but the international soybean price would increase by 4.71 percentage points if the world GDP per capita increased by one percentage point.
出处
《上海农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期148-151,共4页
Acta Agriculturae Shanghai
关键词
大豆
国际贸易
出口价格
价格弹性
Soybean
International trade
Export price
Price elasticity
