民航管制员需求量预测方法研究

Study on demand growth forecast of air traffic controllers

中国民航业的快速发展加快了对民航管制员的引进和培养。根据近年来管制员数量增长的相关数据,通过构建灰色预测模型、用马尔科夫链改进的灰色模型和线性回归模型,分别预测出未来5年内管制员的需求量。最后比较预测结果,可知马尔科夫链适用于改进灰色模型,改进后的管制员预测模型误差较小,精度较高。预测结果能给民航高校的管制员培养计划提供参考,也是对需求量预测方法的探索。

The rapid development of civil aviation in China has sped up the introduction and training of controllers.Based on the relevant data of controller quantity growth in recent years,three mathematical prediction models,grey model,the improved model and regression model are proposed to predict controllers＇ demand growth.Then through comparison and accuracy check of prediction results,it is found that Markov chain is effective to improve grey model with the highest precision.The conclusion is an exploration of demand growth and a reference to controllers＇ training programme-making.