货币政策、现金股利分配与投资水平--基于我国上市公司的实证研究

Monetary Policy,Cash Dividends and Investment:Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

本文使用2003年第一季度至2011年第三季度728家A股主板上市公司的季度数据,检验了货币政策、公司现金股利分配与投资水平间的关系,结果表明紧缩货币政策显著减小了公司股利分配倾向,并且这一现象在国有公司中更为明显。总体来看,股利分配降低了上市公司的投资水平,且这一效应在货币宽松期更为强烈与显著,货币紧缩期间内的股利分配与投资水平并无显著相关关系。本文的结果表明证监会在制定分红政策时需考虑宏观经济政策尤其是货币政策的影响,同时需要不断完善现金股利决策的信息披露机制。

This paper empirically tests the relationship among monetary policy,dividends and the ability to invest by seasonal data from 1st season,2003 to 3rd season,2011 of 728 Chinese listed companies.Our results suggest tight monetary decreases the possibility of dividend significantly,and this phenomenon is more obvious in state-owned companies.In addition,dividend weakens the ability to invest,and this effect is stronger and more significant in loose monetary policy period while unobvious in tight monetary policy period.Our results suggest SRC should consider the impacts of macro-economy policies,especially the monetary policy when making up dividend policies,and they should continuously improve the information disclosure mechanism of cash dividends.