农村水电站水工建筑物失事概率计算

Failure probability calculation for hydraulic structures of rural hydroelectric stations

失事概率是风险的两大要素之一,正确计算失事概率是对我国农村水电站实行风险管理的前提.通过构建农村水电站水工建筑物运行状态综合评价指标体系,选用线性加权综合评价模型评价农村水电站水工建筑物的运行状态,利用农村水电站水工建筑物失事概率与其运行状态的相关性来计算失事概率.建立了基于熵的专家评价模型,大大减轻了综合评价过程中专家打分所带来的主观性影响.将该方法应用到江西省左湖二级电站失事概率计算中,取得了较好的效果.

The failure probability is one of the two elements of risk, and the correct calculation of the failure probability is the premise on which risk management of rural hydropower must be based in China. The operational status of hydraulic structures for rural hydropower is firstly evaluated comprehensively ; then the correlation between the operational status and the failure probability of the hydraulic structures is used to complete a calculation of the failure probability. Indices which are closely related to the behavior of the hydraulic structure for the rural hydropower are selected to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system; and the operational status of the hydraulic structures is evaluated by using linear weighted comprehensive evaluation model. The expert evaluation model based on entropy is established, which can greatly reduce the subjective effect that is brought by the experts＇ scoring in the process of the comprehensive evaluation. This method is applied to the calculation of the failure probability of Zuohu 2nd stage power station in Jiangxi Province, and from it good results are obtained.