城市轨道交通项目建设时序的Monte Carlo和AHP法仿真

Construction Sequence of Urban Rail Transit Project Base on Monte Carlo & AHP Simulation

城市轨道交通的规划、建设、运营是一脉相承的,新线的开通建设对既有线会产生一定程度的影响,在既定规划的基础上建设时序的合理化能使新线与既有线间形成良好的衔接,对于优化城市轨道交通行车组织、提高网络化运营服务质量是一个至关重要的环节。构建了城市轨道交通项目建设时序的评价指标体系,在分析传统AHP(层次分析)方法特点的基础上,考虑评价决策的随机不确定性,应用Monte Carlo和AHP仿真的方法以确定项目建设时序,并通过条例演示了具体应用过程。

In realizing the sustainable development of urban rail transit, it＇s necessary to rationalize the transport structure and give higher priority to public transport. One of the critical aspects is to regard the rationalization of construction sequence of rail transit network as the basis of new policies, aiming to mitigate urban traffic congestion and optimize the transit struc- ture. The planning, construction and operation of urban rail transit projects are originally interconnected, Because the build- ing of new lines will certainly affect the existing lines. A ra- tionalization of the construction sequence will smoothly connect the new lines and the old ones, it is a key point for the optimi-zation of train operation and the improvement of service level. In this paper, the evaluation indexes for the ranking of related projects are produced, based on an analysis of the characteris- tics of traditional AHP, the stochastic and uncertainty of the e- valuation for decision are fully considered, the Monte Carlo ＆ AHP simulation method is applied and demonstrated through concrete practice on the virtual case.