叙利亚政治危机与中国中东政策的调整

Syria Crisis and It's Impacts on China's Middle East Policy

叙利亚政治危机源于其社会制度无法容纳社会的变化。巴沙尔的政治和经济改革非但没能解决深刻的社会矛盾,反而加剧贫富分化,导致社会发展滞后和政治合法性缺失。叙利亚复兴党一直奉行的阿拉伯民族主义也因此破产。而阿拉伯政治认同和严重的旱灾最终引爆了叙利亚政治危机。巴沙尔政权仍具有很强的内聚力和军事实力,从短期来看叙利亚局势仍将处于相持阶段,其走向很大程度取决于外部因素。中国在坚持"不干涉原则"和"多边机制"的基础上"创造性介入"叙利亚问题,有助于维护中东地区的安全和稳定,也是中国扩大在中东的政治影响力,增强软实力,实现和平崛起的契机。

The social change can not be adapted by social institutions is the main reason of Syria crisis. Bashar＇ s political and economic reform can not resolve the profound social contradiction, but deepen the polariza- tion of wealth, result in the backward development of social and the crisis of political legitimacy. So the Arab na- tionalism which pursued by Syria Ba＇ ath party is ineffective. Both Arab identity and the severe drought trigger Syria crisis. Recently Ba＇ athist regime is powerful in cohesion and military, Syria crisis will stalemate on short terms,and it＇s trend depends on the international community. China＇ s ＂creative involvement＂ in Syria crisis with non- interference principle and multilateral mechanism will not only help to maintain security and stability of Middle East, but also be an opportunity for China to expand the political influence, reinforce soft power, and realize the peaceful rise.