雷达风廓线反演在云南强降水预报中的应用

Application of Vertical Wind Profile from Doppler Radar to the Forecast of Heavy Precipitation in Yunnan

利用VAD(Velocity Azimuth Display)方法反演多普勒雷达垂直风廓线,并将反演风场应用于云南强降水过程的诊断预报。通过反演风廓线资料与探空实况、NCEP再分析资料的对比分析,发现VAD方法反演的风廓线与实况资料具有较好的一致性,表明该方法在云南是可行的;通过反演风廓线资料可以较为精细地监测和分析大气垂直方向上水平风场的不连续性,由此得到低空切变、温度平流和低空急流等系统的厚度和强度演变特征。相对于时、空分辨率不足的常规探空资料,雷达反演风廓线具有较高的时间和垂直分辨率,能够更为详细地揭示强降水天气过程中起重要作用的天气系统的主要特征和演变过程。因此,VAD风廓线产品对云南强降水天气过程的预报具有较好的参考价值和应用前景。

VWP（Vertical Wind Profiles）are retrieved from single Doppler radar observation using VAD（Velocity Azimuth Display）method,and the VWP data are applied to the heavy precipitation diagnoses and forecast occurred in Yunnan.The results indicate that the retrieved VWP correspond to radiosonde observation profiles and NCEP VWP very well.It expresses that using VAD method to retrieve VWP from single Doppler radar in Yunnan is viable.Using the retrieved VWP data,the higher resolution vertical shear of wind is monitored and analysed.The time-varying characters of system in thickness and strength such as low-level wind shear,temperature advection and low-level jet can be got exactly.The retrieved VWP data have higher temporal and vertical resolution than radiosonde observation data,and its application will help to clearly reveal the main structure and change character of key synoptic system in heavy precipitation case.So the retrieved wind profile by VAD method has a good referenced value and outlook in heavy precipitation forecast occurred in Yunnan.