集聚、增长与可持续性探讨——基于中国空间分布和行业配置的经验检验

On the Agglomeration,Economic Growth and Sustainability——An Empirical Analysis based on Spatial Distribution and Industrial Allocation in China

基于新经济地理和内生增长模型,对集聚的影响因素以及集聚和增长的关系进行微观分析,发现要素区际流动自由度提高和地区间收入差距扩大是引起集聚的重要因素。利用1978—2008年间中国省级地区和行业数据进行检验,结果显示我国地区间资源分布呈现中心——边缘格局,并具有极化趋势;地区间分行业要素配置的集中度总体趋同,但是20世纪90年代中后期以来制造业快速集聚的趋势值得关注。进一步研究发现,20世纪90年代以来地区集聚、制造业集聚与经济增长负相关,证实了目前资源过度集聚降低了效率。鉴于此,目前我国空间分布的极化趋势和制造业的过度集聚不可持续。

In this paper, we make a micro analysis on the determinants of agglomeration and re- lationship between agglomeration and growth, based on new economic geographic models and en- dogenous growth models. We find that factors mobility rising and income-gap widening among re- gions are important determinants of agglomeration. And then we use provincial and industrial data from 1978 to 2008 to make empirical tests, the result indicates that spatial distribution is core-pe- riphery with polarizing tendency in China, on the other hand, industrial concentration rates are con- vergent. We also find that agglomeration trend of manufacturing is prominent since mid-1990s. It demonstrates that regional agglomeration, manufacturing industry agglomeration has a negative re- lationship with economic growth since 1990s, and also testifies the fact that the excessive agglomer- ation of resources decreases the efficiency. In view of this, we find that the polarizing tendency of spatial distribution and excessive agglomeration of manufacturing industry is unsustainable.