预期性后悔和欣喜作用下的最优序贯搜索策略研究

Sequential search with anticipated regretting and rejoicing

根据经济学中的后悔理论,首次在经典的最优序贯搜索问题中引入了决策者在搜索过程中的后悔和欣喜心理.模型发现,如果决策者具备完美预期,那么她对后悔和欣喜的敏感度之差将直接决定她的搜索行为与最优搜索的偏差程度和方向,并且对于预期性后悔的敏感度越大则搜索程度越低.这符合实验文献里"搜索过少"的结论.进一步分析发现,在停止搜索后能知晓反事件价格的情况下,带有预期性后悔和欣喜的搜索将会趋向于经典的最优搜索策略.如果对于后悔和欣喜的敏感度会受到搜索过程中经历过的类似心理的影响,模型对价格召回也作出了合理解释.

This paper models how regret and rejoice arise in sequential search and shows that anticipation of regret can largely explain why people are found to ＂search too little＂ compared to the theoretical benchraarks. Due to the fundamental asymmetry in feedback structure in search, the model predicts： First, ＂search too little＂ is optimal as long as people are more sensitive towards regret than towards rejoicing. Second, if additional feedback is offered so that people expect to see the next price after search is stopped, behaviors become observationally indistinguishable from the benchmarks. The present model also explains why people occasionally recall past prices.