我国海上战略通道安全影响因素的ISM分析

Analysis on influencing factors for China's strategic sea lane security based on ISM

针对影响我国海上战略通道安全的诸多因素,利用解释结构模型(Interpretative Structural Modeling,ISM)分析各要素之间的直接关系和间接关系,推导出海上通道安全影响因素整体关联的5个层次结构图,得出影响我国海上战略通道安全的关键因素.结果表明,影响我国海上战略通道安全的因素来自经济、政治、军事等诸多方面.这些因素不仅对海上战略通道的影响程度不同,而且彼此之间也存在着影响或制约关系.一个因素的变动,很可能引起其他几个因素的连续变动,形成联动效应,从而给我国制定维护海上战略通道安全的措施提出严峻的挑战.

In view of many factors that influence China＇ s strategic sea lane security, the direct and indi- rect relationship among all the elements are analyzed by Interpretative Structural Modeling （ISM）, the overall associated five hierarchy diagram of sea lanes security influencing factors is derived, and the key factors influencing the China＇ s strategic sea lane security is drawn. The results indicate that the factors that influence China＇ s strategic sea lane security comes from economy, politics, military, and other as- pects. Not only do these factors impact on strategic sea lane in different extent, but also there exists influ- encing or restrictive relationship among them. Change of one factor is likely to lead the continuous chan- ges of several others which forms linkag to safeguard China＇ s strategic sea lane e effects, thereby poses serious challenges to formulate measures security.