气象因素与上海市杨浦区麻疹发病的相关性分析

Analysis on the Correlation between Measles Incidence and Climate factors in Yangpu District,Shanghai

目的探讨上海市杨浦区气候变化对麻疹流行的影响。方法采用Spearman相关性分析上海市杨浦区1996-2010年每月麻疹发病数与上海市月平均温度、相对湿度、气压的相关性。结果 Spearman相关性分析结果,麻疹发病数与当月平均气温呈正相关,与当月的平均气压呈负相关,与上2月平均气温呈负相关,与上2月的平均相对湿度呈负相关。结论气候变化对麻疹发病有显著的影响,应加强气象预测。

Objective To investigate the impact of climate change on the measles epidemic in Shanghai Yangpu District.Methods Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between the monthly measles cases and monthly average temperature,relative humidity and atmospheric pressure in Shanghai Yangpu District during 1996 and 2010.Results Spearman correlation analysis showed that the monthly measles cases were positively correlated with the average temperature of the same month,but was negatively correlated with the average atmospheric pressure of the same month and with the average temperature and average relative humidity of the last two months.Conclusions Climate change has significant impact on the incidence of measles.The meteorological forecast should be strengthened.