城市中心商业区停车需求预测模型及实证研究

Forecasting Model and Its Case Study of Parking Demand for Urban CCD

介绍了目前主要的停车需求预测模型及其特点,并在此基础上建立了适用于我国城市中心商业区的公共停车场的短期和长期停车需求预测模型。该模型结合中国情境,在停车生成率模型基础上,引入了停车场周转率和利用率、价格影响系数、停车服务水平以及路网容量等影响因素。然后,通过天津市滨江道中心商业区进行实例分析,给出了停车需求的短期和长期预测结果,以此作为城市中心商业区交通需求管理的依据。

On the basis of the Parking Generation Rate Models, the improved model, which can be used for short time and long time forecas- ting,was set up, considering more factors, such as the average turnover rate, berth occupancy, service level, price level, growth rate of automo- biles and the capacity of road network. Finally, the model was applied to Binjiang Road＇Central Commercial District （ CCD）, Tianjin, China, which can contribute to Traffic Demand Management（TDM） of CCDs.