区域土地利用方式对农村土地经营权流转的影响——以北京市昌平区为例

Effects of Regional Land Uses on Agricultural Land Use Right Transfer with Logistic and Autologistic Models:A Case in Changping District,Beijing

以北京市昌平区为例,将农村土地经营权流转分为流转发生及流转后土地非农化发生等两个变化过程。分别采用传统Logistic和Autologistic回归模型分析了流转发生前、后区域土地利用方式对土地流转景观过程的影响。结果显示,城镇用地是推动土地流转发生最为重要的利用方式,但同时城镇用地也加速了流转后的土地由农业利用向非农利用的转变;在尺度上,区域土地利用方式对土地流转发生的影响主要体现在1-5 km的中尺度上,对流转土地非农化发生的影响则体现在0-1 km的小尺度上;相比较传统的Logistic模型,考虑了空间自相关效应的Autologistic模型具有更高的解释精度,因此在对土地流转进行驱动力分析时不能忽视空间自相关的影响。

Agricultural land use right transfer （LURT） is an important rural land reform in recent years in China. The LURT was affected by many factors, and social-economic factors were usually studied. However, the land- scape processes of LURT and the impact of regional land use types on LURT is little understood. According to the effects of LURT on landscape, LURT can be divided into two processes： land use right transfer in rural op- erating land and non-agricultural occurrence in the transferred land. Based on the two processes, this article de- fined the transferred type and non-transferred type for the land use right transfer, and non-agricultural type and agricultural type for the non-agricultural occurrence. Changping district of Beijing was took as a case, and the relationships between the regional land use types and LURT landscape processes were established with Logis- tic and Autologistic models. The results showed that urban and city land is the most important land use type to cause the occurrence of land use right transfer, meanwhile, the type also stimulated the change of agricultural use to non-agricultural use in transferred land. On the scale of historical land uses effects, the influence of these land uses was mainly reflected at the medium scale region （1-5 km） and the small scale region （0-1 km） for the occurrence of land use right transfer and the occurrence of non-agricultural uses in transferred patches respectively. Compared with traditional Logistic model, Autologistic model containing the spatial autocorrela- tion effects has higher accuracy, thusspatial autocorrelation effects cannot be ignored for the study the driven forces on LURT.