卫生人力资源需求预测方法学研究——基于卫生人力规划的视角

Studying on the methodology of health human resources demand forecast in China in view of health human resources planning

探讨提高卫生人力资源(HHR)需求预测水平的方法,为制定我国卫生人力资源规划及其政策提供科学、合理有效的理论指导或依据。方法:对清华数据库中的中文知识仓(CNKI)(农业科技知识仓除外)进行相关文献检索,并对该类数据库所收载的HHR预测成果(1994-2010)的方法学进行分析与评价。结果:共检索到全文中同时出现"卫生人力资源"和"预测方法"的论文96篇,其中有关HHR需求预测方法的综述性研究成果各14项(14.6%),有关HHR需求预测方法的应用性研究成果共计32项(33.3%),期它成果51项(52.1%)。结论:卫生人力资源需求预测方法多样,且各方法均有各自的特点和优势,但在实际运用中因各方法均存内在缺陷和缺少对卫生人力的分类预测等而导致了我国HHR浪费与紧缺现象并存。要想使卫生人力规划科学、合理和有效,除完善需求预测技术外,更重要的是须要根据病种和社会经济、文化等因素的动态变化规律以及卫生服务发展的客观规律建立分类人才需求预测方法。

Objective To explore the method to improve health human resource demand forecast, and provide theoretical guid- ance for the development of health human resources planning and policy. Methods All the relevant documents in the database of CNKI except agricultural knowledge database were searched. And the methodology of HHR demand for^ast from 1994 to 2009 was analyzed and evaluated. Results 96 cases of papers containing both health human resources and forecast method were ob- tained ,which included 14 cases of papers with summary findings on HHR demand forecast methods （14.6%） ,32 cases of papers of application of HHR demand forecast methods （33.3%） ,and 51 cases of papers on other studies （52.1%）. Conclusion The methods to forecast HHR demand are diversified, which has different characteristics, advantages and disadvantages. But they are not effectively applied in China,which needs to be further improved by studying their development rule and establishing classified methods.