摘要
选取1994～2011年我国造纸业的年度数据,运用回归分析、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验对我国纸产品贸易与造纸产业发展的互动关系进行实证研究。结果表明：我国纸产品贸易与造纸业的发展存在长期稳定关系。长期来看,我国纸产品进口每增加1个单位,将促进纸和纸板产量增加约0.71个单位,而出口对产业发展的影响并不显著。
This paper selected the annual data from the year 1994 to 2011 of China＇s paper industry to study the relationship between trade of paper products and the development of China＇ s paper industry ,the research approaches include Regression Analysis, Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test. The results show that during the examined period there exists Co-integration between foreign trade of paper products and the development of China＇s paper industry. In the long term, China＇s imports of paper products for every one unit increase promote the production of paper and paperboard to increase by about 0.71 units, while exports of industrial development is not significant.
出处
《林业经济》
北大核心
2012年第11期61-65,共5页
Forestry Economics
关键词
纸产品
进出口贸易
回归分析
协整检验
格兰杰因果检验
paper products
import and export
regression analysis
cointegration test
Granger causality test
