台湾地区主要林产品产值变动趋势测度研究——兼论闽台林业产业合作路径

Trends of Taiwan Region Major Forest Products Output Value—— Discuss Concurrently about Forestry Industry Cooperation Path between Fujian and Taiwan

在厘清主要林产品和产值这两个重要概念的基础上,以2010年台湾地区统计年鉴中的《林业产品生产量值》为样本对象,选取用材、薪材、枝梢材和竹材等产值对数以及林产品总产值对数这5个变量作为研究变量,采用ARMA模型对台湾地区主要林产品产值的变动趋势进行测度;得出关于台湾地区林产品价值变动机理的4个重要结论;最后结合当前海峡两岸的经贸背景,提出促进闽台林业产业深度合作的四条路径。

On the basis of clarifying two important concepts as major forest products and output value, takes ＂Forestry Products Manufacturing Size＂ of 2010 Taiwan region statistical yearbook as the sample object, selects logarithm of the timbers output value, logarithm of the firewood output value, logarithm of the lapwood output value, logarithm of the bamboos output value as well as logarithm of the forest products total output value these five variables as research variables, uses the ARMA model to measure the changing trends about Taiwan region major forest products output value ; obtains four important conclusions about the changing mechanism of Taiwan region forest products output value; Finally, combining with the economic and trade background of current cross-strait, put forwards four ways for the purpose of promoting Fujian and Taiwan forestry industry in-depth cooperation..