外资结构与我国就业结构的动态关系分析

Analysis on the Dynamic Relationship of the Structures between FDI and Employment

我国入世过渡期结束后,三大产业利用外资的结构发生了很大变化。本文利用1997-2010年数据,从产业视角对外资结构与就业结构的变动及其相互关系进行了实证研究。经验分析表明,第一、二产业的外资结构比例与就业结构比例总体趋于下降,第三产业外资结构比例和就业结构比例显著上升;外资结构比例在三大产业中的动态分布与就业结构比例的产业分布不完全同步,外资从第二产业向第三产业转移的速度要快于就业的产业转移;第二、第三产业外资结构与就业结构具有长期协整关系,前者为反向变动,后者为同向变动;但外资流入在一定程度上受就业因素的牵制。在劳动力成本趋升的条件下,要从引资"数量型"转向"质量型",提高我国劳动力素质是关键。

On the basis of data of 1997 -2010, the empirical analysis of this paper has been concentrated on the relationship of the structures between FDI and employment in industries. The results of analysis show that the percentage of FDI and employment in the primary and the second industries has been decreasing, while that in services rising, and there is an active effect from FDI on employment for the services and a negative effect on the second one. The quality of employment has an influence to FDI flow in certain degree which indicates that the improvement of labor quality is key factor for attracting high quality FDI under the rising of labor cost in China.