基于情景分析的浙江沿海地区环境污染防治战略研究

Study on Strategies of Pollution Prevention in Coastal City of Zhejiang Province Based on Scenario Analysis

运用情景分析方法研究了浙江沿海地区经济发展方式对环境产生的压力.首先以COD、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物这4种污染物的排放量为基准,筛选了某典型城市的18个重污染工业行业.其次以重污染工业行业为对象,设计了情景分析模型和辅助程序,以2008年为基准年,目标年2015年重污染工业行业4种污染物的排放量须在基准年基础上下降一定比例作为约束条件,分析在基准情景、产业结构调整情景、工业结构调整情景、清洁生产技术情景、综合情景、可持续发展6种情景下,目标年该市18个重污染行业4种主要污染物的排放量.目的是明确人均GDP已突破70 000元的沿海经济发达城市如何转变发展方式,使经济发展的同时,污染物排放量有所减少,以期为优化工业行业发展结构提供决策参考.基于情景分析结论,提出了进一步发展建议,包括经济适度增长(GDP增长7%左右),加大力度调整产业结构,控制重污染行业发展速度,加强重污染行业的结构调整,加强源头控制,加大力度推进清洁生产技术,大幅削减污染物产生量,同时加强治污设施运营监管,提高污染物去除效率.通过上述措施在目标年可控制重污染行业的COD、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物分别在基准年基础上下降10%、10%、5%和15%.

Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development.The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area,which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap.At first,18 heavy pollution industries were screened out,by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand,ammonia-nitrogen,sulfur dioxide,and nitrogen oxide.Then,a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries.With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively,emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios.The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree,which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis.At last,some suggestions for decision-making are put forward,which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%,strengthening the adjustment of economic structure,controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution,optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution,decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source,and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment.Only by implementing such measures mentioned above,can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand,ammonia-nitrogen,sulfur dioxide,and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%,10%,5%,and 15% respectively based on the reference year.