全球贸易隐含碳的核算及其地缘结构分析

The Calculation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in Global Trade and the Analysis of Geopolinomic Structure

文章基于GTAP国际投入产出数据,核算了全球不同国家或地区之间的贸易隐含碳量。结果表明:全球贸易隐含碳量巨大,占全球碳排放总量的1/4强;隐含碳流入、流出量存在明显区域差异,中国等金砖国家的净流出量较大,美国、欧盟等则净流入量较大;贸易隐含碳的大小存在特定的地缘结构,分化出三种类型的国家或地区集团,以金砖国家为代表的制造业国是中国在隐含碳问题上的主要谈判合作伙伴,低水平发展中国家反而不是中国的最佳谈判合作伙伴。

Based on the international input-output data from the GTAP database, this paper calculates the volume of carbon dioxide emissions embodied in global trade. The results are as follows： firstly, the volume of carbon dioxide emissions embodied in global trade, which accounts for more than 1/4 of the total global emissions, is rather enormous; secondly, the outflow and inflow of embodied carbon dioxide emissions differ widely in countries or regions, and the net outflows of embodied carbon dioxide emissions in BRIC like China are large while the net inflows of embodied carbon dioxide emissions in developed countries or regions such as US and EU are great; lastly, according to carbon dioxide emissions embodied in global trade, the countries can be divided into three categories, and with regard to negotiations on embodied carbon dioxide emissions, manufacturing countries represented by the BRIC could be taken as the main partners of China, but the low-level developing countries are not the most appropriate partners.