基于熵权与系统动力学的配电网规划动态综合评价

Comprehensive and dynamic evaluation of the distribution network planning based on entropy weight and system dynamics

配电网规划方案的总体优劣程度受多种因素影响,规划方案优选属于多属性综合评价决策问题。由于电网规划方案涉及时间较长,在构建综合、全面地反映规划方案特点的评价指标体系基础上,如何动态地实现对规划方案评价将显著影响决策效果。将系统动力学与熵权法有机结合,以系统动力学为基础搭建规划方案评价指标仿真模型,得到规划方案带时间标度的技术经济指标,进一步应用熵权法根据各技术经济指标在评价周期内所含信息量的大小确定指标权重,提出了配电网规划的动态综合评价模型。将所提出的模型应用于实际配电网规划方案评价比选,得到的结论较好地验证了其有效性。

The overall merits of the distribution network planning schemes are affected by many factors. Choosing the optimal plan scheme is an issue of comprehensive evaluation and multi-attribute decision-making. Since a planning scheme is time-consuming, how to dynamically evaluate the planning scheme will significantly influence the decision-making effect on the basis of building an integrated and comprehensive evaluation index system which could reflect the characteristics of the analyzed planning scheme. A model is proposed by making an organic integration of system dynamics and entropy weight method, a simulation model for the evaluation of the planning scheme is built based on system dynamics, and then technical ＆ economic indicators with a time scale could be yielded. The index weight would be determined by further application of the entropy weight method according to the amount of information contained in the technical and economic indicators. Dynamic and comprehensive evaluation model for distribution network planning is formed. The proposed model is then applied to the actual distribution network planning scheme evaluation and selection, and the effectiveness of this model is demonstrated by the result.