省级电网中短期风险评估系统及其不确定性建模方法研究

Research on the provincial power grid mid/short term risk assessment system and its uncertainty modeling approach

目前电网的安全评估主要采用基于"N-1"或"N-2"的确定性方法,对于不确定因素的综合考虑不足,可能无法及时发现系统的安全隐患,难以达到防止随机性事故发生的目的。开展对电力系统中短期安全风险的不确定性评估,对于指导电力系统检修计划以及运行方式安排具有重要的现实意义。提出了省级电网中短期风险评估系统的框架,设计了考虑电网设备健康程度、外部环境、负荷波动、发电机组随机停运等不确定因素的电网风险评估模型与方法,详细描述了包含数据管理、风险评估、薄弱环节辨识在内的系统各项功能设计。为省级电网中短期运行方式的决策与优化提供了技术支撑。

In practical power system, the safety assessment bases mainly on the ＂N-1＂ or ＂N-2＂ criterions. These criterions are somehow deterministic and thus may not reveal the underlying risk of the system in time and protect the system from large scale black out. It is therefore significant to carry out uncertainty based security risks assessment for power system short-term operation in a way that can practically support the power system maintenance and operation mode planning. This paper proposes a framework of short-term risk assessment system for the provincial power system, risk assessment models and methods are proposed considering the uncertainty of the health status and the external environment of power grid equipment, load fluctuations, and generation unit forced outages. Detailed functional designs of the system are described including the data management, risk assessment and identification of weak link. It provides technical support for decision making and optimization of provincial power grid mid/short term operation.