塔里木河流域气候及径流变化特征研究

Study on the Change of Climate and Runoff in the Tarim River Basin

以塔里木河流域的26个气象站和8个水文站1961—2005年的观测资料为基础,对塔里木河流域的温度、降水,径流变化及它们之间的相关关系进行了分析。结果表明:塔里木河流域的年平均气温、降水量逐年代递增趋势。2000年后的平均气温与多年平均气温相比增加了0.75℃,增幅7.69%,其中平原区增幅大于山区;降水量增加了16.65mm,增幅17.89%,其中山区增幅大于平原区;在1961—2008年间塔里木河流域干流径流量逐年减少,2000年后平均径流量与多年平均径流量相比干流阿拉尔站减少了1.35亿m3,减幅为3.00%;叶尔羌河玉孜门勒克站增加了1.91亿m3,增幅为21.80%;和田河同古孜洛克站径流量增加了1.76亿m3,增幅7.88%;乌鲁瓦提站增加了1.75亿m3,增幅达8.06%;开孔河黄水沟站增加了0.58亿m3,增幅达19.48%;大山口站增加了5.43亿m3,增幅达14.33%。通过对20世纪80年代前后开孔河与叶尔羌河年平均径流与年平均气温、平均降水关系的分析发现,气候变化下温度升高对径流的影响较大,尤其是形成于塔北昆仑山水系的河流。

In this paper,based on observations in 26 meteorological stations and 8 hydrological stations of the Tarim River Basin,the changes of temperature,precipitation,runoff,and the relationship between them were analyzed from 1961 to 2005.The results showed that annual mean temperature,precipitation increased by time trend in the Tarim River Basin.After year of 2000,average temperature increased 0.75℃ with an increase rate of 7.69% compared to the long-term average value,in which a increase was larger than in plain area than mountainous area;precipitation increased 16.65 mm with an increase rate of 17.89%,in which the increase was more in the mountainous area than plain area;from 1961 to 2008 in Tarim River Basin,river runoff decreased year by year.After year of 2000,compared to long-term average runoff,the average runoff of the Alar station reduced by 1.35×108 m3 with the decrease rate of 3%;runoff of Yarkent river Yuzminleke station increased 1.91×108 m3 with an increase rate of 21.80%;and the runoff of Hotan river Tongguzleke station runoff increased 1.76×108 m3 with an increase rate of 7.88%;the runoff of Wuluwati station increased 1.75×108 m3 with an increase rate of 8.06%;the runoff of Kaikong River Huangshuiguo Station increases 0.58×108 m3 with an increase rate of 19.48%;the runoff of the Dashankou station increased 5.43×108 m3 with an increase of 14.33%.Through the analysis on annual average runoff and annual average temperature in the Kaikong of river and Yarkent River before and after 1980s,it could be seen that the effects of average precipitation,climate change temperature on runoff was significant;especially the effect was very remarkable in the river basin origining from the Tarim North Kunlun mountainous.