川南经济区夏季农业干旱危险性特征研究

Study of Summer Agricultural Drought Hazard Characteristics in Southern Sichuan Economic Zone

利用川南经济区1981～2010年(6～8月)夏季降水距平资料,采用信息扩散理论,通过构造降水距平百分率和干旱危险度等级(轻度、中度、重度和严重)之间的模糊隶属函数,并引入区间平均隶属度,分析了川南经济区不同等级农业干旱危险性的特征。结果表明,(1)川南经济区农业干旱危险性总体水平较高,自贡地区各级农业干旱危险性的累积概率最大,达41.73%;(2)就严重农业干旱危险性而言,宜宾地区的概率最高约7.47%,其余依次为:内江、自贡、泸州;(3)首次在川南经济区,基于不确定理论,定量地揭示了该地区不同等级农业干旱危险性的概率特征,为农业干旱危险性的研究提供了一条新的借鉴。

Based on the summer precipitation anomalies of four meteorological stations in Southern Sichuan Economic Zone from 1981 to 2010, by structuring the fuzzy affiliation functions between various agricultural drought hazard levels （light, mild, heavy and severe） and precipitation anomaly and interval average membership, as well as by using the information diffusion theory, the probability of every agricultural drought hazard level in this region is calculated. The result shows that ： 1 ） generally, the probability of various agricultural drought hazard levels in this region is high, and the maximum probability can reach a- bout 41.73% in Zigong area; 2） in terms of severe agricultural drought hazard level, the maximum probability is as high as about 7.47% in Yibin area, and the remaining ranked as Neijiang, Zigong, Luzhou; 3 ） based on uncertainty theory, for the first time the probability characteristics of different agricultural drought hazard levels are quantitatively revealed in Southern Sichuan Economic Zone, and which provides a new reference for agricultural drought hazard research.