基于T213数值预报的西昌发射场高空风预报技术研究

Study of Upper Wind Forecasting Techniques Based on T213 Numerical Forecasting in Xichang Launch Site

航天发射试验是一项具有高风险的事业,高空风是影响发射试验活动的一个重要因素,做好发射场区(简称场区)高空风预报,降低发射风险,对航天发射试验任务具有重要意义。本文利用2011年1～12月T213数值预报产品和场区高空风资料,采用模式直接输出、绝对偏差修正、模式输出统计和最优化集成方法对数值预报产品进行解释应用,制作场区整层高空风预报产品。经过评估,高空风预报效果良好。

Aerospace lauching test is a kind of high risking undertaking, correct prediction of upper wind makes great help in reducing risk, the forecast accuracy becomes essential. We try to predict upper wind accurately by using observations and T213 productions of model output, absolute deviation correction, model output statistics and optimization integration method from January, 2011 to December, 2011. Assessing the products, this method of upper wind forecasting can be trust.