地方政府性债务规模风险的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Scale Risk of Local Government Debt

地方政府性债务规模不断扩大,成为地方政府弥补财政赤字的主要手段,而且对宏观经济运行的影响也越来越大。本文通过对地方政府性债务规模进行实证分析,找出影响地方政府性债务规模的因素,并通过建立计量模型,分析相关因素与地方政府性债务规模的关系,为控制地方政府性债务规模辨明方向。

Local government debt has been expanding to become the primary means for local governments to make up the deficit. Local government debt is influencing increasingly on maeroeeonomie performanee. Based on an empirical analysis, this paper makes a preliminary research on the scale of local government debt and discusses the main factors of the scale of local government debt. Then through the establishment of the econometric model, this paper analyzes the relationship between the factors and the scale of the local government debt, which discerns the direetion to control the scale of local government debt.