渐进创新下产品预期收益的模型解析

Product Potential Revenue with Incremental Innovation

在新产品扩散模型的基础上,考虑产品成长过程中不断创新的实际情况,并结合产品价格波动,构建出新产品预期收益模型。通过对该模型的数学解析发现预期收益存在三种可能的分布形态:典型的"钟"型分布,以及不常见的单调递增和单调递减分布。

By inserting the incremental innovation and the price into the product diffusion, we construct themodel of product potential revenue based on the Bass Model. 3 types of the product potential revenue are got： the first is the ＂Ω＂ distribution that is the traditional product life cycle; the second is the monotone increasing distribu- tion; the last is the monotone decreasing distribution.