商品市场一体化的经济增长差异效应——以珠三角为例(2000-2009年)

Differences of Economic Growth of Commodity Market Integration——In the case of Pearl River Delta 2000-2009

为研究珠三角商品市场一体化对珠三角各城市经济增长影响的差异效应,提出空间面板数据地理加权回归模型。研究结果表明,商品市场一体化对经济增长的影响具有时滞性,并存在两类不对称性:相对发达地区和相对落后地区之间的不对称,相对落后地区之间的不对称。其中,商品市场一体化对相对发达地区的经济增长更有利,对相对落后地区的经济增长影响具有不确定性。此外,商品市场一体化对研究对象的经济增长影响存在拐点,当商品市场一体化达到一定程度,其对地方经济增长的影响会发生反转。

This paper constructs the spatial panel data geographically weighted model with spatial correlation and spatial het- erogeneity; it analyzs the differences of economic growth of commodity market integration in the Pearl River Delta cities. Empirical result shows that the commodity market integration on economic growth has a significant time lag, but there are two asymmetries ： one is between relatively developed areas and relatively backward areas, the other is in the relatively backward areas. Commodity market integration on economic growth in relatively developed areas more favorable, in relatively back- ward areas of uncertainty affecting. In addition, there is the turning point in the commodity market integration on economic growth, when the commodity reaches a certain level of market integration and its impact on local economic growth will occur change in direction.