四川省投资、消费内部结构及对经济增长影响的研究

Study on the Internal Structure of Investment and Consumption in Sichuan Province and Its Impact on Economic Growth

基于投资、消费内部结构及其细分项目对地区经济增长影响的视角,对四川省1978～2010年的投资、消费与经济增长之间的关系作了回归分析,研究结果表明:四川省公共投资总体过度中存在局部不足,其中公共基础设施投资、教育与科技事业投资仍有进一步增加投入的空间;私人投资对经济增长起总体促进作用,且对经济增长的产出弹性大于公共投资,但其中向第一产业领域的投资已出现过度,应避免继续盲目增加该领域的投入;消费呈现整体不足,其各细分项目对四川省经济增长均起正向促进作用,但从产出弹性来看,消费各细分项目均小于公共投资、私人投资。

This paper applies regression analysis on the relationship between investment, consumption and economic growth in Sichuan Province from 1978 to 2010, based on the perspective of the impact of internal structure of investment and con- sumption ,and its breakdown on regional economic growth. Results show that： the current public investment of Sichuan Province is general excessive and partial lack;there are still enough input space for public infrastructure investment, educa- tion and science ＆ technology investment ; overall , private investment promotes economic growth and the output elasticity of it is greater than that of public investment, but the investment to the primary industry has been excessive, it should avoid to increase the investment in this field blindly ; consumption is whole insufficient, and its breakdown all plays an important role on Sichuan＇s economy development. , but the output elasticity of Consumption are all less than that of public investment and private investment.