粮食价格与通货膨胀的相互影响及作用关系——一个文献综述

The Mutual Influence and Interaction of the Increase of Grain Prices and Inflation in China:A Literature Review

我国粮食价格上涨与通货膨胀的相互影响在诸多文献中被讨论和引证,但对两者的确切作用关系及影响程度并未形成明确结论。本文回顾了近年来探讨粮食价格与通货膨胀相互关系的相关文献,系统概述了有关粮食价格上涨与通货膨胀的Granger因果关系研究的主要方法和结论,同时对由此引发的批判性讨论与衍生分析进行了归纳,并探讨性地提出了粮食价格控制与通货膨胀管理两方面的政策建议。

The interaction effect between the increase of grain price and the inflation in China is discussed and cited frequently in the literature of economics.The convincing evidence of the accuracy and the degree of this effect,however,is not persuasively demonstrated.This paper reviews related literature in recent years and especially pays a heavy attention to the Granger Cause analysis of these two factors respectively,as well as some critical reviews.Finally it provides some policy advices on the management of both the inflation and the grain prices.