开放真的导致政府规模扩大吗?——基于跨国面板数据的研究

Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?——Based on a cross countries panel data analysis

本文对184个国家1980—2008年的面板数据分析表明,开放程度与政府规模的关系由两种力量作用所决定:一种力量是开放所带来的外部风险冲击,另一种是外部竞争压力带来的国内市场化改革。对于发展中国家而言,两者作用使得开放程度与政府规模呈现倒U形变化;对于发达国家,由于其应对风险的能力强,使得开放程度与政府规模呈现负相关关系。对于中国的省级面板数据分析发现,两者作用使得开放程度与政府规模在东部呈负相关,在中西部呈正相关。

Based on a panel data analysis on a sample of 184 countries from 1980 to 2008, this paper suggestions that the relationship between economic openness and the size of government is determined by two interactional factors. One is the risk imposed by external shocks and the other is the domestic market-oriented reform. In developing countries, the openness has an inverted U-shape relationship with the size of government. In developed countries, because of their more sophisticated skill of dealing with risks, the openness exhib- its negative correlation with the size of government. Finally we find that in China, openness has negative correlation with the size of government in east provinces, but positive correlation in middle-west Drovinces.