软土地区铁路路基风险评估与管理研究

Risk Assessment and Management of Railway Subgrade in Soft Soil Area

研究目的:在铁路工程项目的建设中,存在着各种潜在的不安全因素,即风险因素,而软土地区尤其如此。铁路工程项目建设的成功与否,主要取决于对该工程项目建设全过程中所涉及的各种风险的识别、评价以及能否根据评价结果采取正确的处理措施,即对工程项目进行风险管理。研究结论:提出识别软土地区铁路路基可能发生的各种风险事件以及催生各风险事件发生的相关风险因素的技术路线;运用专家评分与层次分析(AHP)方法对软土地区铁路路基风险因素进行量化评估;同时利用理正软件,对竖向排水固结地基和粒料桩、加固土桩复合地基的软土地区铁路路基风险因素进行敏感性分析,找出设计阶段对铁路路基工后沉降和稳定性影响较大的因素,最后针对软土地区铁路路基提出风险预防与管理的步骤与方法。

Research purposes： Various latent insecurity factors, namely risk factors exist in the railway engineering construction especially in soft soil area. Success or failure in the railway engineering construction depends on the various risk identification, risk evaluation in the entire process of the project construction as well as the correct processing measure taken according to the evaluation results, namely risk management for an engineering project. Research conclusions：This paper presents the technical guideline for identifying various risk accidents of the railway subgrade in soft soil area and for the relevant risk factors of each risk occurring thereof;, application of the expert＇s evaluation and analysis as well as analytical hierarchy process （AHP） for qnantization and assessment of various risk factors thereof; simultaneously, application of the Lizheng software for sensitivity analysis of the risks in soft soil railway subgrade with vertical drainage consolidation subsoil and grain piles, reinforced soil pile composite subsoil. The results show in the design stage, post - construction settlement and stability are the greater influencing factors on the railway subgrade. Finally the steps and methods of risk prevention and management are put forward to railway subgrade in soft soil area.