出入境特殊物品风险评估体系建立和评估软件研究

Establishment of the risk assessment model and study of the risk evaluation software for special products

目的分析出入境特殊物品可产生传染病等危害的各个风险因子,建立出入境特殊物品风险评估的风险指标体系和数学模型,并编写相应的计算机软件。方法采用专家咨询法建立特殊物品风险评估的指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各风险因子权重,使用Expert Choice 2000软件进行数据处理。使用Visual Basic软件和Access数据库系统编写软件。结果研究建立了出入境特殊物品风险指标评估体系,包括3个一级指标、7个二级指标和20个三级指标。采用数学模型对特殊物品风险进行综合评估。出入境特殊物品风险综合评估值≤0.019为极低程度风险;0.019～1.374为较低程度风险;1.374～2.352为较高程度风险;≥2.352为极高程度风险。结论出入境特殊物品分类的复杂性是造成开展风险评估困难的主要原因。开展风险评估是提升出入境特殊物品检疫监管效率的重要途径。当前出入境特殊物品风险评估关键在于风险的识别和量化。

Objective To analyze various risk factors for special products which could lead to infectious diseases spreading, and to establish a risk index system and a mathematical model for special products risk assessment and to program the corresponding computer software. Methods The experts consultation method was used to establish the risk index system. Analytic hierarchy process （AHP） was used to determine index weights of all levels. Expert Choice 2000 software was used for statistical analysis while Visual Basic and Access Database are used for software programming. Results The entry-exit special products risk assessment system included 3 first-degree indexes ,7 second-degree indexes and 20 third-degree indexes. The mathematical model was used to comprehensively assess the risk of special products. The risk assessment value of entry-exit special products which was equal to or less than 0.019 was classified as minimal risk level ; and 0.019-1.374 as low risk level; and 1.374-2.352 as high risk level; and the value was more than or equal to 2.352 as maximal risk. Conclusion The classification of special products is the main difficulties for the risk assessment. It is an important way to enhance the efficiency of quarantine and supervision with special products by risk assessment. And the key to the risk assessment is how to identify and quantify the risks.