基于多专家评估应急预案启动的RCVaR模型

The RCVaR Model of Contingency Plans' Activation Based on Multiple Experts' Evaluation

何时启动应急预案是企业应对突发事件的关键点。在对相关文献资料分析的基础上,提出一套基于多专家评估的应急预案启动方法,创新性地将多专家的意见嵌入决策过程中,用RCVaR模型作为决策目标研究突发事件下应急预案的启动问题。研究发现,RCVaR价值模型能很好地处理多专家应急评估经验,能为预案的启动提供基于过程参与的决策支持。

When to activate contingency plans is the key point for corporations to deal with unexpected events. This paper gives a method of muhiple experts to activate contingency plans based on analysis of relative research. It creatively puts experts＇ suggestions in the process of decision, and view relative RCVaR as the decision goal to study when to activate eontingency plans . The research finds that RCVaR mode can deal with contingency experiences from multiple experts, and it can provide support for the decision makers in the process of decision.