美国民众对中国台湾地位认知的影响因素--基于美国人对华态度实证调研

The Influential Factors of the American Public Cognition on Taiwan Status——Based on the Survey of the American People's Attitude towards China

台湾历来是中国领土的一部分,由于台湾优越的地理位置,长期受到外来势力的干扰。二战胜利后,台湾问题本来是国共内战遗留的内政问题,但由于美国的多方阻挠,台湾问题成为中美关系中最敏感的问题之一。自中国恢复联合国合法席位以及中美建交以后,包括美国在内的绝大部分国家都承认"台湾是中国的一部分"。中美关系下的台湾问题经历了中美对峙、中美建交、冷战后和9.11后以后,美国民众到底是如何认识中国台湾问题的?本文采用logistic模型,利用美国人对华态度实证调研的数据,全面解读美国民众如何看待中国台湾,并从中了解哪些因素影响美国民众对中国台湾地位的认识。

Taiwan has always been part of China. For the sake of its strategic location, Taiwan had been invaded and inter- vened over and over again by foreign forces. The Taiwan Question ,which was left over by the civil war between the Communist Par- ty of China and Kuomintang after World War II,is,in fact, the China＇s own internal affairs. Yet it has now become one of the most sensitive one in Sino-U. S relations simply because of the interference by the United States. The fact that Taiwan is part of China has been acknowledged by the overwhelming majority of the countries in the world, including the United States ever since China resumed its legitimate seat in the United Nations, especially after the Sino-U. S diplomatic relations was established. It is necessary to get the correct understanding of how the American public looks at Taiwan Question when it has witnessed the Sino-US confrontation,the establishment of their diplomatic relations,the Cold War and the September. 11. Based on the data by the sur- vey of the American attitude toward China,this paper tries to make a comprehensive interpretation of the American＇ perception toward the issue by using logistic regression model and, at the same time, to further understand the factors that affect American＇s public opinions toward it.