摘要
本文采用IPCC推荐的表观消费量法计算了中国大陆30省区1991到2010年化石能源消费产生的CO2排放,发现:(1)排放总量由 2293.01Mt 增长到 7467.77Mt;(2)煤炭消费的排放比重最高达到79.98%;(3)人均排放量由 1.98t 增长至 5.57t;(4)CO2排放强度显著降低,由6.66 kg USD-1降至1.07kg USD-1,近年来趋于稳定;(5)区域发展不平衡始终存在,根据省际数据,在一些落后地区经济增长过度依赖于化石能源消费。关于CO2高排放,中国已经做出承诺并采取了行动。基于对可持续发展和全球气候变化不确定性的综合考虑,健康的产业结构、化石能源集约利用,以及区域发展平衡应更加受到重视。
In this article, we calculate China's Mainland’s CO2 emission of fossil fuel consumption from 1991 to 2010 following the apparent consumption method recommend by IPCC： （i） the scale of CO2 emissions has increased nearly to 4 times as that in 1991; （ii） coal consumption constitutes the highest proportion due to the richness of coal resources in China; （iii） per capita CO2 emission has increased from 1.98 to 5.57 t CO2 ; （iv） carbon emission intensity declined significantly from 6.66 to 1.07 kg CO2 USD -1 , but recently it tends to be stable; and （v） regional develop gaps remain in China's Mainland, for according to the provincial data, in many developing regions economic increase over-reliance on fossil fuel consumption. China has made the promises and already taken actions to deal with the high carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the sustainability of development and the uncertainties remaining in global climate change, healthier structures of industry, intensive usage of fossil fuel, and a more balanced development pattern among the southern, central and western China should be put more emphasis.
基金
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31070384)
