论艾西莫格鲁的经济波动理论及其价值

On Acemoglu's economic fluctuation theory and its value

2012年9月,达龙·艾西莫格鲁等人在经济学顶尖杂志《Econometrica》上发表了题为《总量波动的网络起源》的论文。在这篇论文中,他们提供了一个研究级联效应的一般分析框架,系统阐述了某一特定部门的异质性冲击,是如何因级联作用而转化成总量波动的。他们认为,这次金融危机凸显了宏观经济中企业、行业之间相互关联的重要性,不是有些公司"太大以至于不能倒",而是"太关联而不能倒"。近十多年来,宏观经济学理论体系(包括经济增长和经济波动理论)的进展一直是细枝末节上的变化,而这篇论文,将社会网络与宏观经济理论结合起来,很有可能开辟宏观经济理论的一个流派。另外,它对金融危机的解释迥异于之前Paul Krugman、Milton Friedman、Hyman P.Minsky等人的任何理论,形成了新一代的金融危机理论。

In September 2012, Daron Acemoglu and his companions published the paper entitled ＂ The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations＂ in Econometrica. In this paper, they provide a general framework for the study of cascade effects and systematically evaluate how idiosyncratic shocks are translated into aggregate volatility because of interconnections. They argue that the recent financial crisis has further highlighted the importance of interconnections among firms and sectors in the economy. The reason for the financial crisis is not that many institutions were＂too big to fail＂, but because they were ＂too interconnected to fail＂ In the recent ten years, the progress of the macroeconomic theory system, including growth theory and fluctuation theory, has been evolved only in details. But this paper, combining the social network and macroeconomic theory, is likely to open up a new genre of c theory. In addition, our explanation on financial crisis is different from any theories of Paul Krugman, Milton Friedman, and Hyman P. Minsky etc., forming a new generation of financial crisis theory